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Buy Lupin..By Insight95in on Feb 09, 2010 at 11:06 AM
Buy Lupin Price: Rs1,514 Generic Lotrel launched in the US * Lupin receives approval for generic of Lotrel: After some delay, Lupin today announced approval for its generic version of Novartis’s Lotrel (amlodipine + benazepril combination) indicated for treatment of hypertension. Lupin is the third player in this market after Teva and Sandoz (AG). The current approval is for four dosage strengths (2.5mg/10mg, 5mg/10mg, 5mg/20mg and 10mg/20mg). The company has immediately started shipping the product. Lotrel brand MAT Sep-09 sales as per company are c. $1.1bn. The higher dosage strengths (5mg/40mg and 10mg/40mg) making up c.30% of total sales are yet to go generic. * Lupin’s launch will be without any legal risk: Lupin was sued in Dec-06 for its ANDA seeking approval to market all the six strengths of Lotrel. However, the company settled with the innovator in Sep-09 for a launch ahead of expiry in 2017 of the only listed patent - 6162802. The terms of the agreement were confidential. Teva had already launched “at-risk” in 2007 following which Novartis introduced its authorized generic under Sandoz. Dr Reddy’s, Mylan, Cobalt, Watson and Par Pharma were also sued. Post Lupin’s launch, we believe two more players are likely to enter in next six-nine months. * We have built in $15m Lotrel sales in FY10: In 4QFY10, we have already factored in $15m sales from this product @95%, assuming 15% share of a $400m market (20% price erosion from current level). While the IMS reports higher sales, we note that IMS tends to over-report sales of generic products. We have also factored in $25m sales for FY11, assuming 25% share of a $100m market (80% price erosion from current level). We note that Lupin is also likely to launch higher strengths of Lotrel in June-11 - post expiration of Par’s 6-mth exclusivity, as per the latter’s settlement with Novartis. We expect Teva/Mylan/Cobalt to launch simultaneously. Hence, the benefits will be restricted to $5m. * We remain optimistic about Lupin’s generic portfolio pipeline for US and maintain our estimates. With clearance of Mandideep facility, we expect some awaited approvals to come through in FY11. Maintain BUY.
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Few mutual funds holding LUPIN (View all funds) SBI Magnum Sector Umbrella - Pharma Fund - Growth SBI Magnum Global Fund 94 - Growth ICICI Prudential Fusion Fund - IP - Growth ICICI Prudential Indo Asia Equity Fund - Retail - Growth 1 Comments
By R4 firmware on Feb 09, 2010 11:51 AM Hi,
Thank you very much for the whole information.I was little bit aware but your post gave me clear idea... Enter Code
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